American Odds To Implied Probability

We are sports fanatics in one way or another no matter how many times we deny it. We love betting and that is one way to reveal your love for sports ever since online gambling and sports betting were legalized, many sportsbooks have established themselves across the United States, offering various types of bets and sports resources.

We can excuse square bettors if they ignore odds when betting because they are not in for the long run. But if you are a serious bettor and are not checking odds when you are betting, you are not headed in the right direction in your betting career. Any serious bettor knows that odds are very important when you want to bet because they help you determine whether there is value in a bet or not. No matter how good you are at picking winners, all your skill will amount to nothing if you cannot determine the value of your bets by analyzing sports betting odds. 

How to Read Betting Odds 

There is no right or wrong way to read odds. Different people read odds differently which is usually determined by where you come from. Odds are read differently in regions that are why there are formats to differentiate them. In continental Europe, odds formats are read in decimal points. In the United Kingdom, odds are represented infractions, while in North America, they just use American odds that have either a minus sign in front of the odds for favorite and the plus sign for the underdogs. It is therefore very important to understand these formats when you want to bet 

BetAdrian is one of them. If you want to expand your knowledge in sports, including Esports, you have to team up with the most reliable sportsbook, which is BetAdrian. No matter what kind of sports you are into, we will provide all kinds of bets and sports resources. 

Esports has come a long way and many people are now betting on it to try out their luck. Understanding how it works will help you get the value of your bet just like in sports betting. Esports probabilities are complex compared to casino games and coin flips which are well known and defined objectively. However, in games of skill, such objectives are not defined. In Esports, the two sources of probabilities that we need to know include: 

  • Market-implied probabilities 
  • Calculated probabilities

In this article, we are going to focus on American odds to implied probability. This will help you understand better now bets are placed in Esports. Read on for more understanding. 

To find valuable bets when you are wagering on esports, you need to have your own calculated probabilities. It is also critical that you back out on probabilities that a market believes an event will occur.

Market Models 

Most bettors only see offered odds when they log into their favorite betting sites. However, that is not where most bookers start from. While setting betting odds,  bookers will not just come out of the blues and decide that they should pay out +150 if Team A wins. There are various market models that bookmakers use to figure out the probability of a team winning. 

Bookmakers always try to keep the odds balanced. It becomes unbalanced if a bookmaker sets the payout on either team too high because bettors will favor that side of the bet is not a good idea. On the other hand, no one will want to bet if the odds are set too low. Therefore, the ideal thing to do is make the betting odds for both teams equally attractive.

What are Implied Probabilities? 

Regardless of whether you are betting for fun, rivalry, or experimenting to learn Esports, it is important to understand that aiming for profits is more exciting in Esports. American odds to implied probability are odds types that are usually converted into percentages. This also includes the booker’s margin. This is done by dividing 1 by the decimal odds and then multiplying by 100.

True Win Rates 

True win rates refer to how often each of the teams participating in the match has a greater chance of winning the match.  When coming up with an American odds for implied probability, bookers need to make out each team’s probability when they play together a thousand times. A booker can also get the true win rate by checking the number of times each team wins when they play together a million times. 

The true win rate for two perfectly matched teams playing in the same match will be 50 percent for each team. When a professional team that has played several games plays with a team that has never played a single game, the true win rate for the professional team will be 100 percent. These are just two simple examples. However, if you want to find the true win rate, you need to involve various aspects of many played games to get the true win rate of different teams. 

These Breakeven Point 

The break-even point refers to the minimum true win rate needed by the team that you are betting on for you to win. You will earn a return if the true win rate is greater than the breakeven point. The return will be greater than 0.

Amount Wagered ÷ Total Payout: Break-Even Amount

In American odds for implied probability, some even money may be much less than payout money in some bets. This means that you will need to break even less often than 50 percent. On the other hand, less paying bets that even amount have to win less than 50% to get the bettor’s money back. Doing this calculation in reverse on one way of applying the breakeven point. 


If you are into Esports, then you should know that you can also make money through Esport betting. However, to increase your chances of winning and making money, you need to understand how betting odds such as the American odds to implied probability are set by bookers. Although Esport betting odds are a little different from the normal sports bet odds, you can make money through them. Before betting on Esports, you require a reliable Esports betting site such as BetAdrian. We offer a wide range of sports betting tips and odds that will help you to understand this type of online betting. BetAdrian also offers various resources to users who require vital information that will help them make valuable bets – whether the usual sports or Esports. 

Learn More:- How to find the best undrafted NBA players?


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